The present “civil war” like situation prevailing in Pakistan, after the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, doesn’t come as a surprise. Political instability in the Islamic nation can be gauged by the fact that the most governments in the last few decades failed to complete full term in office.
At the time of independence in 1947, the famous Pakistani poet Faiz Ahmed Faiz described the tragedy of Pakistan in his couplet “Subh e Azadi”. Yeh Daag Daag Ujala, Yeh Sab Guzida Sehr, Woh Intezar tha Jiska, Yeh woh Sehr to Nahin”. Gen Iskandar Mirza, who imposed the martial law in 1958, famously quoted that “Democracy was unsuitable for a country like Pakistan,” clearly setting the tone for future political leaders that, Pak army would be the actual power center, in a fragile democracy like Pakistan.
Infact, Pakistan has never had a robust, stable and mature democracy unlike its neighboring country, India. If we look at the political journey of Pakistan, we see that most of its elected leaders were sacked, one of its popular leader ZA Bhutto was hanged and martial law was forced upon it by military dictators like Zia-ul-Haq and Parvez Mushraff among others, ostensibly to save the country from going adrift by the so called incompetent political leaders. The Pak army which controls the foreign and defense policy of its country, is the only organization which has remained stable in a country which is generally perceived as unstable, divided, disorganized, corrupt, violent, unjust, full of sectarian violence and breeding ground of extremism. Unlike stable Pak army, the political parties have remained unhinged, which suits the military to call the shots and remain relevant both among the public and political parties.
In his book Pakistan Adrift, Lt Gen Assad Durrani, who had been head of ISI, has stated that he was asked by the than COAS, Gen Beg to arrange funds for Islami- Jamhoori- Itehaad (IJI)party for the elections to take on PPP which was led by Benazir Bhutto, who used to question the Pak army and whom the army did not want to come to power. These incidents highlights that in Pakistan, two things are aptly clear. Pakistan Army is the actual power center and political party or its leader which are not in consonance with Pak army would not survive irrespective of its popular base among the masses. The Pak political leadership has been aware of this reality and has generally followed the dictate of their masters in uniform, even if reluctantly. The Pak army has also become cannier not to go in for coup to gain power as in the past, since it is better and easier to control power from behind the curtains without annoying the West, who champion democratic setup in a volatile country like Pakistan.
If we analyze the political history of Pakistan, we will see that most of their political leaders have toed the army dictate on major issues to avoid direct confrontation, however two leaders stand out to an extent, who tried to challenge the influence of Pakistan Army, sometimes discreetly and at times openly. Benazir Bhutto and Imran Khan. Benazir Bhutto who was a popular leader at that time was sacked and incarcerated for corruption charges. She was also disqualified for the general elections in Pakistan. She was later assassinated while holding a political rally in Pakistan. Her relationship with army was least cordial, considering the fact that her father ZA Bhutto, Ex PM was executed by Gen Zia-ul-Haq. Incidentally, Zia -Ul- Haq was made COAS by ZA Bhutto, overlooking six generals who were senior to him. Imran Khan who purportedly came to power with the support of Pak Army lost his majority in the parliament when his alliance broke away. It is not a coincidence that he fell apart from the army due to his disagreement with COAS, Gen Bajwa over appointment of senior members of the army. Mr Imran Khan has also been found guilty of corruption charges by National Accountability Bureau (NAB). The government statement says that he has been arrested for not cooperating with the investigating agency. It would be interesting to see that general elections which are scheduled shortly in Pakistan are held and whether Imran Khan would be allowed to participate in it, since he is found guilty of corruption, a popular leader of the country and not in consonance with the armed forces of his country. He has in fact has gone on record that army had made attempt to assassinate him, which was off course has been denied by the Army.
The current situation in the country of Pakistan seems to be fairly unhinged. On the security front, the sectarian violence continues, and export of extremism remains unabated. On the economic front the country is fighting with high inflation of around 40% with prices of essential commodities going beyond the reach of common men. The country is desperately trying to tide over economic challenge by loans from IMF and WB which is not easy to come through, since they are likely to default on payment as also it had remained in grey list due to support /lack of will to contain extremism. The political crisis which was already existing has been further compounded by arrest of Mr Imran Khan and the violence that followed his arrest, with his purported supporters going on rampage and destroying public property. Mr Imran Khan has been insisting since the time he lost majority and was sacked, that a puppet government has been installed by certain devious western power in connivance with Pak Army. It is a common trend in Pakistan that whenever their political leader is arrested and purportedly victimized, the political workers and supporters come to the street to protest and resort to violence. However, one trend seen this time, which is different from the past is the annoyance and attack on the property of its strong army and high-ranking officers i.e., Corps Commanders, seemingly a civil war like situation. This is a new phenomenon and is both intriguing and interesting. Pakistan army power citadel seems to be challenged by PTI party workers and supporters. Is there an internal rift within pak army or it is being deliberately allowed, to project PTI party as anti-national, giving opportunity to the powerful army to ponder take over, which they have resisted in recent times. Incidentally, the Pak army which is both revered and respected by their public is not only controlling their country indirectly but is also involved in lucrative business and commercial activities, the detail of which is available in a book titled Military Inc, written by Ayesha Siddiqa.
The situation in Pakistan currently is fluid and it would be premature to analyze what would be the final contours of the present situation. Pak leaders, both political and military have traditionally looked at the West for tiding over crisis both political and military. It is a mere coincidence that both PM and COAS are abroad, in all probability seeking international support for their decisions which they are likely to take. However, Pak will remain volatile both politically and economically for times to come. Whosoever, ultimately control power his/her government would have a big challenge to provide stability, which is a herculean task. An unstable nation is not an idyllic situation and at this stage India’s response has been cautious and rightfully monitoring the situation and enhancing the vigil on the LC.
Author
Col Vivek Thapliyal (Retd) is a second-generation army officer. He was commissioned into Jammu and Kashmir Rifles (Infantry) and has a vast experience of operating in J&K and Northeast in Line of Control (LC)/ Line of actual Control (LAC)/ Counter Terrorism ( Rashtriya Rifles). He has also participated in Operation Vijay and Operation Parakram. He is an alumnus of prestigious Defence Services Staff College, Wellington. He is an avid reader and takes keen interest on issues related with National and International security. He is a postgraduate in Defence and Strategic Studies from Chennai University and Mass Communication from Hemanti Nandan Bahuguna Garhwal University. The officer has served in Army Headquarters, where he was dealing with People Republic of China. He is settled in Doon after serving 33 Years in the Army.
